With just days left before the Nov. 5 election, voters face a swirl of conflicting predictions, tight polls, and reports of skewed betting markets.
Allan Lichtman, a seasoned election forecaster who has nearly perfected the art of presidential prediction, remains steadfast in his forecast: Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump.
Amid voter skepticism over the reliability of polls and betting markets, Lichtman’s contrarian prediction based on his historically accurate “keys” method offers a unique perspective in an election filled with uncertainties.
As the country counts down to the Nov. 5 election, voters are caught in a maze of conflicting polls and dubious betting odds, leaving many unsure where to look for reliable predictions. Enter Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University and renowned election forecaster, who is known for his uncannily accurate predictions.
Lichtman, famously dubbed the “presidential election Nostradamus,” is standing firm on his earlier projection: Kamala Harris will emerge victorious over Donald Trump.
Unlike traditional predictions based on polls or betting odds, Lichtman’s method relies on a unique “keys” system a set of 13 true-or-false questions about the political landscape, incumbent party performance, and societal trends. His model, which he’s honed since 1984, disregards the polls altogether, focusing instead on broader historical trends and election fundamentals.
“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman reiterated in a recent YouTube video. His track record backs up his confidence
Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, even as national polls heavily favored Hillary Clinton, and accurately forecast Trump’s 2020 loss to Joe Biden.
In recent weeks, allegations have emerged about betting markets being manipulated to reflect a preference for Trump, further clouding voter confidence in traditional predictive tools. “The betting markets have been skewed, and the polls are notoriously volatile,” says political analyst Laura Carlson. “Lichtman’s approach is refreshingly objective — it’s historical and systemic, rather than influenced by fluctuating numbers.”
Polling analysts report unusually tight numbers across key swing states, suggesting a highly competitive race, but Lichtman remains unfazed. He believes his approach, focusing on historical and societal “keys” rather than daily poll swings, gives him a more stable, reliable forecast in uncertain election climates.
Critics argue that Lichtman’s model may underestimate current political shifts and public sentiment. But many voters see his methods as a trustworthy alternative in an era of uncertainty. “He’s been right time and again,” says Karen Thompson, a Harris supporter in Florida. “In a race this tense, Lichtman’s prediction feels like something solid to hold onto.”
As Nov. 5 approaches, Lichtman’s conviction offers a beacon of consistency for voters wary of volatile polls and skewed betting odds. Whether his call for a Harris victory will prove accurate remains to be seen, but his prediction method remains a powerful counterpoint to conventional polling in the final days of the 2024 presidential race.
